Will Iran experience political change before September 2026?
PolitiqueOne-OffDivertissementMusicMiddle East1moManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 19 juil. 2026, 20:20 UTC · politique pm-quality-2
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 27.4%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
6
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 jours
Obsolète17 juil. 26, 22:1931 août 26, 23:59
Tendances
Fonds fictifs uniquement, aucun argent réelCeci n'est pas un conseil financier
Résultat choisi
Yes27%
Tendance du volume
$2517 juil.3j de données19 juil.
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Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve to Yes if, between the time of this market's creation and August 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM UTC, any of the following events occur in Iran:
- Change in Supreme Leadership: Mojtaba Khamenei ceases to hold the office of Supreme Leader of Iran (due to death, resignation, ouster, or incapacitation) and is succeeded by another individual, or the office of Supreme Leader is officially abolished.
- Change in Presidency: Masoud Pezeshkian ceases to hold the office of President of Iran (due to death, resignation, impeachment, or ouster).
- Regime Overthrow or Systemic Change: The official governing system of Iran (the Islamic Republic) is overthrown, dissolved, or replaced; or a new constitution is formally adopted that fundamentally alters the governing structure of the country (e.g., abolishing the theocratic system).
- If none of these specific events are officially confirmed by credible global news agencies (such as Reuters, Associated Press, Al Jazeera, or BBC) to have occurred prior to September 1, 2026, the market will resolve to No.