Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026?
US PoliticsGéopolitiqueMonthlyMiddle East21jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 44 minutes
26 mars 26, 08:39 UTC30 sept. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
- Source signal: AP News (March 26, 2026): Trump claims Iran is eager to deal while Tehran dismisses his ceasefire plan.
- Both sides hardening positions; Iran grips Strait of Hormuz.
- AP-NORC poll: most Americans say US military action against Iran gone too far.
- Why this matters: A US-Iran nuclear deal would reshape 2026 geopolitics—oil prices, Middle East stability, US foreign policy.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 97% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? doit être résolu le 30 septembre 2026.
- Comment Will Iran and the US reach a formal nuclear deal by September 30, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria: Resolves YES if the US and Iran sign or formally announce a binding nuclear agreement (or equivalent framework deal endorsed by both governments) on or before September 30, 2026.