Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.8%
Prévisionnistes
32
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète30 juin 26, 23:25 UTC2 janv. 27, 00:21 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will I injure myself this climbing season?
Manifold MarketsWill I be able to resolve this market myself at the end of 2030?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
KalshiBozeman-area housing units authorized in 2026
KalshiWill there be less than 350 million people in extreme poverty by 2030?
Manifold MarketsRègles
I've had one for a while, which was strong enough to pinch skin against other metal objects quite painfully, but not do anything worse.
- I can just barely free a ball bearing that's stuck to the magnet with nothing but my fingers.
- I just got a second supermagnet a bit larger than the first.
- "Severe injury" will include anything whose effects last longer than 1 week, or anything for which I decide I need to seek medical attention.
- Resolves NO if I make it to the end of the year.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume total
- 8,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 136,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will I severely injure myself with my new supermagnets? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will I severely injure myself with my new supermagnets? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will I severely injure myself with my new supermagnets? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will I severely injure myself with my new supermagnets? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : I've had one for a while, which was strong enough to pinch skin against other metal objects quite painfully, but not do anything worse.