Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.5%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète4 mai 26, 20:22 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will TSMC CoWoS capacity exit binding-constraint status before 2026-12-31?
Manifold MarketsWill Princeton international students lose legal status before 2027 (as is seemingly happening at Harvard)?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources:
- A public statement from a major HBM supplier (SK Hynix, Samsung, Micron) in an earnings call transcript or press release indicating HBM3e supply meets or exceeds demand
- A public report from a research organization (Epoch AI, CSET, Brookings, government statistical agency) indicating HBM3e shortage has cleared
- TrendForce or similar publicly published market-summary data (free-tier reports only — NOT paywalled subscription content) indicating supply ≥ demand
- Source of truth: publicly accessible earnings call transcripts (SEC EDGAR / company IR pages), public press releases, free-tier industry reports.
- Tie-breaker rule: if there are conflicting public statements from different suppliers, the market resolves based on the predominance of public evidence as of 2026-12-31.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-1.0pt84.2%
- Yes+1.0pt15.8%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 92,5 k €
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-2.0pt38%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+3.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-5.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,-4.0pt86%
- November 30,-1.5pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 202797%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+1.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 202794%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,4 M €
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T22.1%
- $1.75T–$2.0T21.1%
- $1.5T–$1.75T-4.5pt15.8%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+18.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+10.0pt54%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- When will Starlink officially announce an IPO?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will HBM3e supply exit shortage status before 2026-12-31? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if, by 2026-12-31, the High Bandwidth Memory 3e (HBM3e) supply situation has publicly transitioned from "shortage" to "balanced" or "oversupply" per any of the following publicly accessible sources: