Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 10:30 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.6%
Prévisionnistes
31
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 22, 22:06 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the UK abolish the Monarchy before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Universal Studios Great Britain open before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland leave the UK by 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Northern Ireland announce a reunification referendum?
KalshiWill Northern Ireland hold a referendum on leaving the UK before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNorthern Ireland Assembly election winner?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves Yes if the state known as or formally known as the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland abolishes its monarchy and becomes a republic before 0:00 1 January 2030.
- Whether other Commonwealth countries continue to have monarchs from the line of Queen Elizabeth II is irrelevant.
- Should any constituent country of the UK leave the union before this point, the question refers only to the rump state rather than to the seceding state.
- The question will resolve ambiguously should the successor state of the current UK become impossible to clearly identify.
- #UK #Politics
