Will Gavin Newsom run for President in the 2028 election?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 72.7%
Prévisionnistes
68
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 heures
Obsolète22 oct. 23, 10:02 UTC9 nov. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Gavin Newsom run for President in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWill Kamala Harris and Gavin Newsom both run for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Gavin Newsom win the Democratic Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Gavin Newsom win the US Presidential Election in 2028?
ForecastExRègles
Updated description:
- My current take: this should not be the same as "does he win the primary"; that's a different question, that we have other markets for. "Run for" in my mind means election activity, including being on the primary ballot, or the presidential ballot, or filing FEC forms.
- I propose that this resolve Yes if either:
- He appears on any primary or general election ballot for the office of the Presidency or party (presumably Democratic) nomination for it
- He files an FEC Form 2
- Any objections or proposed other criteria?
