Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 74.8%
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 13 minutes
13 sept. 26, 20:19 UTC31 déc. 26, 20:51 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Is Conradin an alternate handle for Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsWill Eliezer and Gretta still be really into each other on October 4th, 2026?
Manifold MarketsIs Eliezer Yudkowsky the author of The Waves Arisen?
Manifold MarketsMaine lobster landings in 2026
KalshiWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
KalshiWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
KalshiRègles
The Yuddish Language: yuddish.com
- This is quite possibly the nerdiest thing I've ever done (which is saying a lot, as a founder of this site), but I've created a new conlang that is an homage to both Eliezer Yudkowsky and Yiddish.
- In Yuddish, you have to indicate your credence in bits of log odds, your evidential basis for assertions (whether it's direct empirics, armchair reasoning, or third hand reports), and distinguish clearly between propositional and non-propositional speech acts (wishes, questions, commands, suppositions).
- And do it all with Yiddish vocabulary.
- Dos likht ef⁺⁶=zen brenen.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CultureKALSHIMaine lobster landings in 2026
- Above 55 million pounds94%
- Above 70 million pounds65%
- Above 75 million pounds44%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6,9 k €
- Volume 24h
- 6,2 k €
KALSHIWill California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Yes60%
- No40%
- Volume total
- 10,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6 k €
KALSHIWho will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- Vanderbilt87%
- Rice84%
- UCLA79%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 15,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 431,2 €
POLYMARKETWill Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- No+0.5pt82.2%
- Yes-0.5pt17.8%
- Volume total
- 17,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 234,7 €
FORECASTEXWill UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $55,000 in 2026?
- No77%
- Yes23%
- Volume total
- 189,7 €
- Volume 24h
- 189,7 €
KALSHIUS test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Significant decrease+3.0pt60.4%
- No significant difference-11.0pt28.7%
- Significant increase+6.2pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 50,9 k €
- Which colleges will see their ranking drop this year?
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- Will NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
- Will UCLA out-of-state tuition exceed $53,000 in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Will Clavicular kiss the Western Wall in 2026?
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Which celebrities will appear in mobile game advertisements this year?
- Hawaii total visitor arrivals in 2026
- Harry Styles and Zoë Kravitz: Marriage date
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Eliezer approve of Yuddish? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 75% au 15 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Eliezer approve of Yuddish? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Eliezer approve of Yuddish? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Eliezer approve of Yuddish? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The Yuddish Language: yuddish.com