Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées obsolètes
Données au 27 oct. 2026, 19:54 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.7%
Prévisionnistes
30
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 minutes
7 juil. 23, 10:03 UTC30 juin 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald J. Trump win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill the Republican presidential candidate endorsed by Trump win the 2028 Republican primaries?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
Manifold Markets2028 Republican nominee?
Manifold MarketsLA-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRègles
Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.
- Given this, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will seek and win the Republican nomination in 2028?
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
- This market will resolve NO if Donald Trump is still alive and is not the 2028 nominee.
- If Donald Trump dies before the relevant date, this market will resolve N/A. I am open to arguments about changing the N/A criteria such that his death will make this market resolve NO.
