Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 92.5%
Prévisionnistes
29
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 38 minutes
7 juil. 23, 10:03 UTC30 juin 28, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Donald J. Trump win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExWill Donald Trump have been the Republican nominee in every presidential election from 2016 until his death?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump be the Republican nominee for president in 2028?
Manifold Markets2028 Republican nominee?
Manifold MarketsWill Donald Trump Jr. win the Republican Nomination for US President in 2028?
ForecastExNH-01 Republican nominee?
KalshiRègles
Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.
- Given this, what is the likelihood that Donald Trump will seek and win the Republican nomination in 2028?
- This market will resolve YES if Donald Trump is the 2028 Republican presidential nominee.
- This market will resolve NO if Donald Trump is still alive and is not the 2028 nominee.
- If Donald Trump dies before the relevant date, this market will resolve N/A. I am open to arguments about changing the N/A criteria such that his death will make this market resolve NO.
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 93% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? doit être résolu le 30 juin 2028.
- Comment Will Donald Trump be the Republican nominee in 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Most other (manifold) markets have converged on a ~25% probability (as of July 7th 2023) of Donald Trump winning the 2024 United States presidential election.