Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?”
ChinaOne-Off3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 91.8%
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète5 avr. 26, 20:44 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
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PolymarketRègles
The only direct ferry link between Taiwan proper and mainland China was the Pingtan-Taichung/Taipei service, running from 2011 until COVID suspension in February 2020.
- It has not resumed since.
- The Mini Three Links ferries (Kinmen/Matsu to Fujian) do not count for this question.
- In April 2026, KMT chair Cheng Li-wun (鄭麗文) is visiting China for talks with Chinese leadership, raising the question of whether any tangible cross-strait concessions will follow.
- Resolves YES if any direct passenger ferry between a port on Taiwan proper and a port on mainland China completes at least one sailing before January 1, 2027, with approval from Taiwan’s government.
- Resolves NO otherwise.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?” ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 92% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?” sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?” doit être résolu le 30 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will direct passenger ferry service between mainland Taiwan and mainland China resume by end of 2026?” est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The only direct ferry link between Taiwan proper and mainland China was the Pingtan-Taichung/Taipei service, running from 2011 until COVID suspension in February 2020.