Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 72.7%
Prévisionnistes
14
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
6 sept. 26, 09:02 UTC1 oct. 26, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will construction begin on Trump’s triumphal arch in 2026?
KalshiWill a 250-foot triumphal arch be built across from the Lincoln Memorial before Trump leaves office?
Manifold MarketsPresidential Election Winner 2028
PolymarketRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
Polymarket$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
This market will resolve "yes" if any construction for the purposes of building Trump's triumphal arch begins before September ends.
- If no such construction occurs before October 1 ET, this market will resolve "no".
- For the purposes of this market, construction is defined as any changes to the site of the planned arch that are done for the purpose of actually constructing the arch (merely setting up construction equipment or similar preparations will not count).
- Should there be a dispute, the rules provided will control over the answer to the question itself.
- While the question is intended to provide an easy way for people to bet on their beliefs, it is not the end-all, be-all, and all traders should look at the rules.
- Please don't hesitate to ask clarifying questions in the comments.
Marchés ouverts
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
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POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
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POLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+9.8pt96%
- $25M+15.5pt94%
- $50M+31.5pt86%
+4 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich party will win the U.S. House?
- Democratic Party84.2%
- Republican Party15.8%
- Volume total
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- 294,7 k €
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- J.D. Vance44.7%
- Marco Rubio20.4%
- Ron DeSantis3.9%
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will construction of Trump's triumphal arch begin before the end of September? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 73% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will construction of Trump's triumphal arch begin before the end of September? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will construction of Trump's triumphal arch begin before the end of September? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will construction of Trump's triumphal arch begin before the end of September? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market will resolve "yes" if any construction for the purposes of building Trump's triumphal arch begins before September ends.