Will Commerce impose model-level export controls on a second AI company before 2027?
Politique américaineOne-OffIATech2mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 62.9%
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 20 heures
Obsolète18 août 26, 03:44 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves YES if: Between market creation and 11:59 PM ET December 31, 2026, the US Commerce Department (BIS) imposes a license requirement on the export, reexport, or in-country transfer of one or more specific AI models or model weights developed by a company other than Anthropic, and this becomes publicly known.
- Qualifying instruments: an "is-informed" letter, a BIS rule or order, or an Entity List/end-use control that has the effect of requiring a license for a named US or foreign company's frontier model or weights.
- Must target models or weights.
- Controls on chips, compute, cloud/IaaS access, semiconductor tooling, or datacenter equipment do NOT count, no matter how AI-relevant.
- Must name a company other than Anthropic.
- Additional actions against Anthropic, or modifications/exemptions to the existing Anthropic IIL, do not count.
