Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56.9%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 10 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 14:18 UTC31 oct. 26, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
PolymarketChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 20 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending August 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 20 tonnes for August 2026 NO if: Export volume below 20 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
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- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
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- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes? doit être résolu le 31 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if China August 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 20 tonnes.