Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 56.9%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète8 avr. 26, 14:19 UTC31 déc. 26, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 50 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China January 2027 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 20 tonnes?
Manifold MarketsWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
PolymarketXi Jinping out before 2027?
PolymarketHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
PolymarketRègles
This market resolves YES if China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 80 tonnes.
- What is being measured: China monthly Sm2O3 export volume (GACC data) for the month ending October 2026, settled 2 months later to allow for GACC reporting lag.
- YES if: China Sm2O3 monthly export volume >= 80 tonnes for October 2026 NO if: Export volume below 80 tonnes
- Resolution sources (priority order):
- GACC (General Administration of Customs, China) monthly trade data — HS 2846.90
- Asian Metal — China rare earth export monthly tracker (asianmetal.com)
Marchés ouverts
ChinaPOLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
- No-0.1pt96%
- Yes+0.1pt4%
- Volume total
- 35,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 100,1 k €
POLYMARKETXi Jinping out before 2027?
- No+0.2pt96%
- Yes-0.2pt4%
- Volume total
- 11,3 M €
- Volume 24h
- 38,7 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 9?
- 26°C+18.0pt56.1%
- 27°C-3.0pt19.6%
- 25°C-3.5pt15.9%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETChina x Philippines military clash before 2027?
- No-0.5pt72.3%
- Yes+0.5pt27.7%
- Volume total
- 356,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 13,5 k €
POLYMARKETWill Xi Jinping visit US by which date?
- October 31+1.6pt98%
- December 31+1.6pt97%
- September 3095%
+3 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWill China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
- No+1.0pt89.1%
- Yes-1.0pt10.9%
- Volume total
- 2,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 11 k €
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- Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
- How many tropical cyclones will make landfall in China during 2026?
- Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?
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- Will Xi Jinping visit the United States?
- Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
- China x Japan military clash before 2027?
- Second-Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 57% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceed 80 tonnes? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This market resolves YES if China October 2026 Sm2O3 export volume exceeds 80 tonnes.