Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 77%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète10 déc. 25, 03:58 UTC30 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Claude surpass ChatGPT in monthly active users by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Manifold reach 100k monthly active users before 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Cursor report 10M monthly active users before Jan 1, 2027?
Manifold MarketsMercadoLibre fintech monthly active users in Q3
KalshiLife360 monthly active users in Q3
KalshiWhich of the following social platforms will die first? (die = lose >50% of average monthly active users YoY)
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution Criteria
- This market resolves YES if Bluesky publicly reports, or a credible third-party source confirms, that the platform has exceeded 50 million monthly active users (MAU) at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
- Acceptable sources for resolution:
- Official Bluesky blog posts, press releases, or SEC filings
- Statements from Bluesky CEO Jay Graber or official Bluesky accounts
- Reporting from major outlets (NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, The Verge, TechCrunch) citing internal data or people familiar with the matter
