Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 99%
Prévisionnistes
47
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète5 févr. 25, 02:21 UTC23 déc. 32, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Background Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA's ATLAS telescope in Chile.
- The asteroid is estimated to be between 40-90 meters in diameter.
- Current calculations indicate a potential impact date of December 22, 2032, with odds ranging from 1 in 77 to 1 in 83.
- The potential impact corridor spans South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea, and South Asia.
- Resolution Criteria This market will resolve YES if Asteroid 2024 YR4 impacts Earth's surface or atmosphere on or around December 22, 2032.
- The market will resolve NO if:
Marchés ouverts
Latin America
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt52.5%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.8pt45.5%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 125,2 M €
- Volume 24h
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POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election First Round: 2nd Place
- Flávio Bolsonaro-3.0pt84.3%
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva+4.8pt13.7%
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POLYMARKETTrump renames New Mexico to New America by which date?
- December 31-2.0pt9%
- September 30-1.0pt5%
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- Volume 24h
- 56,5 k €
KALSHIBrazil Presidential election winner?
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-3.0pt51.4%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+3.0pt42.9%
- Jair Bolsonaro2.9%
+11 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 3,4 M €
POLYMARKETVenezuela leader end of 2026?
- Nicolás Maduro86.5%
- Delcy Rodríguez-3.0pt11.5%
- María Corina Machado+0.1pt1%
+13 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETParaná Governor Election Winner
- Sergio Moro+2.5pt86%
- Sandro Alex-2.5pt14%
- Requião Filho-0.4pt0%
+6 résultats de plus
- New Mexico St. vs Hawai'i
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- Ceará Senate Election: 1st Place
- Brazil Presidential Election First Round: 3rd Place
- Piauí Governor Election Winner
- Tucuman vs River Plate
- Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
- Who will officially lead Venezuela at the end of 2026?
- Highest temperature in Mexico City on September 9?
- Lima Mayoral Election Winner
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 99% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? doit être résolu le 23 décembre 2032.
- Comment Will Asteroid 2024 YR4 hit earth? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Background Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024, by NASA's ATLAS telescope in Chile.