Will any of these senior Supreme Court Justices voluntarily retire by 2028?
One-OffPolitique américainePolitiqueÉlection1a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleSamuel Alito (age 74 in 2024) 69%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète12 déc. 24, 00:25 UTC11 janv. 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
It is commonly accepted that Ruth Bader Ginsberg, despite ailing health, declined to step down before 2016 expecting that she could have her Supreme Court seat replaced by the first female president.
- If this was in fact a plan, it backfired wildly, leading to a conservative supermajority that will last for at least an entire generation.
- Any justice who voluntarily steps down during the next presidential cycle will likely see their seat filled by someone under sixty, all but guaranteeing a conservative majority for the next twenty years.
- I’m throwing Sotomayor in the mix, because despite being a relatively new justice, there are concerns of her health, and there was a push for her to step down and let Biden refill her seat instead of risking it slip like RBG’s.
- Results will be updated as justices step down, or the end of the 47th presidential term is reached in January 2029.
- Any judge who passes away during that term without stepping down will be marked as a “NO”, not voided.
