Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 91.6%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète7 avr. 26, 14:56 UTC31 déc. 29, 05:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will any OEM be producing LLZO solid-state battery packs at commercial scale (≥1 GWh/year) by December 31, 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill Tesla significantly invest in new battery chemistry before a solid state battery EV is delivered in the US?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be true about solid-state batteries in 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill Apple release an iPhone that uses a solid-state battery by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsBy when will a competition platform like Codeforces but for mathematics (theorem proving) appear?
Manifold MarketsWill Huawei ship at least one million 910C chips in 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
This market resolves YES if at least one automotive OEM or battery manufacturer is producing LLZO (Li7La3Zr2O12, lithium lanthanum zirconium oxide) solid-state battery packs at commercial scale — defined as an annualized production rate of at least 1 GWh/year at a single facility — by December 31, 2029.
- Toyota, Samsung SDI, or another OEM has confirmed commercial LLZO SSB production at a single facility with annualized capacity of at least 1 GWh/year by Dec 31, 2029
- Commercial vehicle deliveries with LLZO SSB packs are documented (not prototype/demo)
- Production at ≥1 GWh/year run rate confirmed by company disclosures or independent audit
- Only pilot or demonstration scale production exists (<1 GWh/year annualized) by Dec 31, 2029
- Only sulfide-based SSBs (not LLZO garnet chemistry) reach commercial scale
