Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks?
US PoliticsOne-OffGéopolitiqueMiddle East1aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 60%
Prévisionnistes
9
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète16 mars 26, 12:06 UTC1 janv. 28, 11:41 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered.
- These include but are not limited to: - Kicking out USA military personnel from local bases - Temporarily restricting US operations in said bases - Restricting airspace access to the USA - Agreeing to only sell oil in Yuan for the duration of the conflict
- The deal must: 1) Offer a concrete non-aggression guarantee by Iran 2) Sideline the USA* 3) Be publicly acknowledged by both sides
- *A deal between the USA and Iran that happens to help conditions for all the gulf-states will not be considered.
- (That said, I can see a world where Bahrain and Iran strike a deal and Trump insists it's his deal cause he's the dealmaker...
- I would consider this still sidelines the USA if it clearly favours Bahrain only.)
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 60% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2028.
- Comment Will any gulf-state make a side-deal with Iran to avoid further attacks? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Any deal that could be easily perceived as "against the interests of the USA" will be considered.