Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 96.3%
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 32 minutes
12 oct. 26, 01:46 UTC31 déc. 29, 11:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Walgreens or CVS still offer COVID vaccines to walk in customers in December 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill all mRNA type vaccines be abolished and pulled off market before 2040?
Manifold MarketsHow much will ACA Marketplace enrollment decline in 2027?
KalshiWhich engineering breakthroughs will achieve widespread commercial and societal integration by 2050? [add responses]
Manifold MarketsMandatory DNA synthesis screening law in the US by '27?
Manifold MarketsWill Washington state decriminalize ALL psychedelics by 2026?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, at any point before January 1, 2030, all COVID-19 vaccines lose regulatory approval, marketing authorization, or emergency use authorization (EUA) for commercial distribution in the United States, leaving no COVID-19 vaccine approved or authorized for sale or administration.
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Resolution Details:
- "Pulled off the market" requires that no COVID-19 vaccine formulation (mRNA, protein subunit, viral vector, or other platform) retains active FDA approval or EUA for any demographic group in the U.S. The standard seasonal phase-out or replacement of older strain formulations with updated variant-matched vaccines does not trigger a YES resolution, provided at least one updated COVID-19 vaccine remains approved/authorized and commercially available.
