Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 58%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard22 avr. 26, 10:08 UTC31 déc. 28, 11:07 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the cover of @RichardHanania 's new book on elite human capital have a trans woman on it?
Manifold MarketsWill AI find an infinite mana exploit in Manifold by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiRègles
From https://blog.mozilla.org/en/privacy-security/ai-security-zero-day-vulnerabilities/:
- Encouragingly, we also haven’t seen any bugs that couldn’t have been found by an elite human researcher.
- Some commentators predict that future AI models will unearth entirely new forms of vulnerabilities that defy our current comprehension, but we don’t think so.
- Software like Firefox is designed in a modular way for humans to be able to reason about its correctness.
- It is complex, but not arbitrarily complex.
- By 2029, will this turn out to be false?