Will "AI companies are unlikely to make high-assura..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
IAOne-Off3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 78%
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 minutes
24 janv. 25, 02:57 UTC1 févr. 27, 00:00 UTC
Tendances
Règles
As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.
- Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2025 Review resolves in February 2027.
- This market will resolve to 100% if the post AI companies are unlikely to make high-assurance safety cases if timelines are short is one of the top fifty posts of the 2025 Review, and 0% otherwise.
- The market was initialized to 14%.
