Prévision communautaire actuelle
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 24, 16:46 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
By the end of 2028 will AI be able to write an original article and get it accepted in a prestigious Philosophy journal?
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Manifold MarketsRègles
This asks about a concern raised by Dario Amodei in a Senate subcommittee hearing:
- Dario Amodei, CEO of Anthropic, told a Senate Judiciary subcommittee that the prospect of AI helping people develop and deliver these weapons is a medium-term risk that his company is grappling with today.
- "Over the last six months, Anthropic, in collaboration with world-class biosecurity experts, has conducted an intensive study on the potential for AI to contribute to the misuse of biology," he said.
- "Today, certain steps in bioweapons production involve knowledge that can’t be found on Google or in textbooks and requires a high level of specialized expertise — this being one of the things that currently keeps us safe from attacks," he added.
- He said today’s AI tools can help fill in "some of these steps," though they can do this "incompletely and unreliably." But he said today’s AI is already showing these "nascent signs of danger," and said his company believes it will be much closer just a few years from now.
- "A straightforward extrapolation of today’s systems to those we expect to see in two to three years suggests a substantial risk that AI systems will be able to fill in all the missing pieces, enabling many more actors to carry out large-scale biological attacks," he said. "We believe this represents a grave threat to U.S. national security."
