Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréAlerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 10:10 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelleOui 85.6%
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 12 heures
Obsolète25 juin 24, 13:25 UTC2 janv. 33, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Russia announce completion of an AI data center with >10,000 AI accelerators (GPUs/TPUs) before 2027?
Manifold MarketsBTC price on Oct 30, 2026 at 5pm EDT?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 24 - October 26, 2026?
PolymarketBitcoin price at the end of 2026
KalshiWhere will it rain on Oct 25, 2026?
KalshiElon Musk # tweets October 23 - October 30, 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Compared to an H100, will tensor TFLOPs/Watt improve by 100x by 2033? AI accelerators in scope for this question must be deployed significantly - with at least 100k units or $100M (in 2024 dollars) in production, and have published perf/watt numbers.
- This market will count peak FLOPs/watt at k bits of precision, adjusted by a factor of 2^(1 - 32/k).
- That is, 16 bit precision counts 1/4 as much as 32 bit, which counts 1/4 as much as 64 bit precision.