Will Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"?
One-OffSociety & Culture3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 93.8%
Prévisionnistes
7
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète18 juin 26, 15:45 UTC31 déc. 26, 16:42 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Most blocked non-government account on Bluesky at the end of 2026
Manifold MarketsIs Syzygy on the Glowfic constellation an alternate account of Eliezer Yudkowsky?
Manifold MarketsWill Bowser (@browserdotsys) reactivate his X/Twitter account before the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
PolymarketWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
KalshiWill NJ Transit rail on-time performance reach 90% in November?
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if, on or before December 31, 2026, Aella publishes a dedicated firsthand or "insider" account detailing her experiences, observations, or interactions at the Dialog conferences (frequently referred to as Peter Thiel's "secret society").
- Eligible formats for publication include:
- A dedicated post on her Substack (Knowingless).
- A structured, multi-post thread on her Twitter/X account (@Aella_Girl).
- A dedicated podcast episode, video, book chapter, or article in a media publication where she is the primary author or guest sharing her firsthand account.
Marchés ouverts
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
- 40-64-0.5pt45.5%
- 65-89+1.5pt27.7%
- <40-3.5pt15.8%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 30,8 k €
- Volume 24h
- 18 k €
KALSHIWill California recognize Jewish identity as an ethnicity?
- No90%
- Yes-70.0pt10%
- Volume total
- 8,7 k €
- Volume 24h
- 7,7 k €
KALSHIWill Yellowstone record over 5 million recreation visits in 2026?
- No95%
- Yes-6.0pt5%
- Volume total
- 15,4 k €
- Volume 24h
- 952,2 €
FORECASTEXWill Massachusetts Institute of Technology rank first overall in 2027?
- No82%
- Yes18%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
FORECASTEXWill Princeton University rank first overall in 2027?
- Yes85%
- No15%
- Volume total
- 516,1 €
- Volume 24h
- 516,1 €
POLYMARKETPoilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
- No+2.5pt81.2%
- Yes-2.5pt18.8%
- Volume total
- 136,3 k €
- Volume 24h
- 419 €
- Harry Kane Knighted in 2026
- US test scores in Math in 2026?
- Who will be in the US News top 20 universities?
- US test scores in Reading in 2026?
- Will Clavicular wear a Yarmulke in 2026?
- Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
- Is Earth flat?
- Major news story in Sep 2026?
- Idaho passes ballot measure legalizing abortion?
- Will MrBeast donate to East Carolina University athletics NIL programs this year?
- Turner Prize 2026 Winner
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 94% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"? doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Will Aella publish an insider account of Thiel's Dialog conferences/"secret society"? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria