Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028?
IAOne-Off2aManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 95.7%
Prévisionnistes
57
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète31 août 23, 19:40 UTC1 janv. 29, 06:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House
- HarperCollins
- Simon & Schuster
- The novel must be purported to be written by a human, but turn out to have been mostly* written by AI.
- What counts as "mostly" written by AI? As noted in the comments, it is unlikely that we would ever know exactly what percentage of the words in the final draft originated with the human author vs the AI, so there is a very high likelihood of considerable ambiguity.
- I will use my best judgement, taking into account opinions expressed in the comments, to resolve this fairly.
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Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 96% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment Will a novel published by a 'Big Five' publisher turn out to be written by an AI by 2028? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : The traditionally recognized Big Five publishers are: Penguin Random House