Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 87.3%
Prévisionnistes
18
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 minutes
7 août 26, 02:58 UTC1 oct. 26, 04:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*?
Manifold MarketsWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by September 30, 2026?
ForecastExWill any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the United States by November 30, 2026?
ForecastExWill Hurricane Lowell make landfall in Hawaii?
PolymarketWill a named tropical cyclone make landfall in Delaware, Maryland, or Virginia between June 1 and November 30?
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolves YES if the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) records a tropical cyclone at **hurricane intensity** (maximum sustained winds >= 74 mph / 64 kt) making **landfall** on the coastline of the **continental United States** (the 48 contiguous states) at any time from market creation through 2026-09-30 23:59 ET.
- Resolves NO otherwise. **Oracle:** NHC public advisories and, where available, the NHC Tropical Cyclone Report.
- The center of circulation must cross the CONUS coastline while NHC's own advisory carries the system at hurricane intensity.
- A hurricane that weakens to a tropical storm before its center crosses the coast does NOT count.
- Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii and Alaska do NOT count. **Context (not criteria):** As of 2026-08-07 the season has produced two named storms -- Arthur and Bertha, both Gulf-genesis -- and zero hurricanes.
- NOAA's 2026-08-05 update maintained a below-normal outlook: 7-13 named storms, 2-6 hurricanes, 0-2 majors, with a 75% chance of a below-normal season under a Super El Nino.
Marchés ouverts
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
- 32°C+69.0pt100%
- 27°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 28°C-0.3pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 154,6 k €
- Volume 24h
- 148,6 k €
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-7.0pt59%
+19 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 92,3 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 8?
- 19°C+54.0pt98%
- 20°C-31.0pt2%
- 16°C or below-0.2pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above63.8%
- 88° to 89°19.1%
- 86° to 87°13.3%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 84,1 k €
- Volume 24h
- 79,3 k €
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
- 25°C+94.5pt100%
- 19°C or below-3.0pt0%
- 20°C-6.0pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
- 29°C+70.5pt100%
- 26°C or below-8.4pt0%
- 27°C-10.4pt0%
+8 résultats de plus
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 87% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? doit être résolu le 1 octobre 2026.
- Comment Will a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if the National Hurricane Center (nhc.noaa.gov) records a tropical cyclone at **hurricane intensity** (maximum sustained winds >= 74 mph / 64 kt) making **landfall** on the coastline of the **continental United States** (the 48 contiguous states) at any time from market creation through 2026-09-30 23:59 ET.