Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 88.2%
Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
Obsolète2 janv. 26, 11:58 UTC2 janv. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will 7 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 10 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill 6 or more US banks fail in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich banks will fail by end of 2026?
PolymarketWhich central banks will hike before 2027?
KalshiWhich banks will take Anthropic public?
KalshiRègles
This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.
- The outcome will be determined by the FDIC's "Failed Bank List" (https://www.fdic.gov/bank-failures/failed-bank-list).
- This market will be resolved as YES if there are 8 or more records in "Failed Bank List" that have year 2026 in the column "Closing Date".
- This will be resolved YES shortly after such condition is met.
- This market will be resolved as NO if, at the beginning of 2027, there are fewer than 8 records with a "Closing Date" in 2026 on the "Failed Bank List".
- Author betting rules
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+1.0pt86%
- Yes-1.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 180,5 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-2.0pt88%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+1.0pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-14.0pt37%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-13.0pt36%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-9.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T21.2%
- $1.75T–$2.0T20.2%
- $1.5T–$1.75T19.2%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 105,1 k €
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+21.0pt84%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+13.0pt57%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- Weed rescheduled by which date?
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- OpenAI’s valuation end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- LSU to leave the SEC before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote No à 88% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2026? doit être résolu le 2 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will 8 or more US banks fail in 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : This prediction market is about the failure of US banks in the year 2026.