Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?
One-OffPolitiqueRégulationCrypto2moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesBien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleNon 58%
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58
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 1 heure
En retard26 nov. 22, 21:16 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
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Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat % of FTX money will be clawed back from grantees, resolves to my best guess?
Manifold MarketsWill >5% of >2 FTX political donations received before the 90-day bankruptcy period be clawed back?
Manifold MarketsClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketWhich Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
PolymarketRègles
Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.
- (This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%".
- Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)
