Will >5% of an FTX-implicated political donation be clawed back, from >2 politicians or political campaigns, by end of 2026?
One-OffPolitiqueRégulationCrypto3mois
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Non 76.1%
Prévisionnistes
56
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 17 heures
Obsolète26 nov. 22, 21:16 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
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KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 campaigns or party treasuries or individual politicians, more than 5% of the funds they received from Sam Bankman-Fried or other FTX executives.
- (This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%".
- Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)