Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
One-OffRégulation3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleOui 51.6%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète1 août 26, 16:23 UTC1 janv. 27, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026?
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KalshiWill the U.S. Supreme Court grant certiorari to hear the the NJ prediction market case by the end of 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWill the Clarity Act become law?
KalshiRègles
Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 individual recipients of an FTX-originating grant that went through a legal charity along the way, more than 5% of the money received; including but not limited to FTX Foundation, FTX Philanthropy, FTX Future Fund, "North Dimension" under Alameda, the FTX Future Fund regranting program, etcetera.
- (This is intended to capture the spirit of "there were not just a couple of exceptional cases" and "there wasn't just a go-try-it letter with no chance of making it successfully through the legal system" and "they didn't just settle for 5%"; i.e., to measure the probability of a scenario that would pose strong danger to a lot of individual people who did work under FTX grants.
- Resolves YES if there's a protracted battle still going on into 2027.)
- Added: Per original title, "individual" means "individual human worker".
- (Identical market to: source market)
Marchés ouverts
RegulationKALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028+2.0pt42%
- Before Oct 1, 2027+1.0pt41%
- Before Jul 1, 2027+2.0pt34%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 4,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 58,9 k €
POLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No-2.0pt83.2%
- Yes+2.0pt16.8%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 43,1 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,-1.0pt84%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Mar 1, 2027+4.0pt98%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-2.0pt95%
- Before Feb 1, 202793%
+9 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,5 M €
POLYMARKETWeed rescheduled by which date?
- December 31-2.3pt16%
- September 30-8.6pt2%
- July 31-1.2pt0%
+2 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhich companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- Jersey Mike's99%
- Shein98%
- Oura-3.0pt95%
+26 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 1,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 4,8 k €
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- How many Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Which Senators will vote for the Clarity Act?
- Will Colorado's AI rules take effect before February 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Yes à 52% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2027.
- Comment Will >5% of an FTX grant be clawed back, from >2 individual workers, by end of 2026? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves YES if at the end of 2026, there was any successful or still-being-prosecuted attempt to claw back, from more than 2 individual recipients of an FTX-originating grant that went through a legal charity along the way, more than 5% of the money received; including but not limited to FTX Foundation, FTX Philanthropy, FTX Future Fund, "North Dimension" under Alameda, the FTX Future Fund regranting program, etcetera.