Prévision communautaire actuelle
Oui 66.3%
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
binary
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 11 minutes
14 oct. 26, 01:53 UTC31 déc. 27, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
November 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsWill 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsOctober 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S / ERA5 dataset) reports in its annual global climate release that the global surface air temperature for calendar year 2027 was the highest on record (exceeding all prior calendar years).
- If the C3S dataset is unavailable, the market will resolve according to official annual global surface temperature data from the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISTEMP) or the NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI).
- If 2027 ranks second or lower, or ties for the highest temperature on record without exceeding previous years, the market resolves to NO.
- Global average surface temperatures are tracked by several primary climate monitoring bodies, including Copernicus (C3S/ECMWF), NASA (GISTEMP), NOAA (NCEI), Berkeley Earth, the UK Met Office, and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO).
- Annual global temperatures are driven by long-term anthropogenic warming trends combined with interannual ocean-atmosphere variability, particularly the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle.
