Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district
PolitiqueOne-OffUS PoliticsÉlection3moisManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleRick Zbur (Incumbent) 66.8%En tête parmi 4 options
Prévisionnistes
1
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète25 août 25, 15:04 UTC31 déc. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will win the California State Assembly 12th District Seat?
Manifold MarketsWill Venezuela become 51st state?
PolymarketWisconsin State Assembly winner?
KalshiNevada State Assembly winner?
KalshiWho will win the 2026 election for California's 11th Congressional District
Manifold MarketsWho will win the 2026 election for California's 14th Congressional District
Manifold MarketsRègles
Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the option matching the candidate certified by the California Secretary of State as the winner of California State Assembly District 51 in the November 3, 2026 general election (after any recounts/court-ordered adjustments).
- Primary outcomes do not resolve this market.
- Verification: California SOS results portal and the final Statement of Vote; LA County Registrar results may be used as corroboration.
- Links: https://electionresults.sos.ca.gov/ and https://www.sos.ca.gov/elections/prior-elections/statewide-election-results and https://results.lavote.gov/.
- (sos.ca.gov, sonomacounty.ca.gov)
Marchés ouverts
PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.1pt25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,7 M €
- Volume 24h
- 697,7 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.2pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.1pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,2 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Jon Ossoff17%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom14%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 471,3 k €
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.5pt74.3%
- New People (NL)-3.8pt21.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-1.1pt3%
POLYMARKETNext French Presidential Election
- Marine Le Pen+0.3pt36.4%
- Édouard Philippe+2.0pt31.3%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon-1.0pt12.1%
+38 résultats de plus
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- New Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- South Carolina Senate winner?
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before 2027?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district ?
- Manifold Markets cote Rick Zbur (Incumbent) à 67% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district sera-t-il résolu ?
- Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district doit être résolu le 31 décembre 2026.
- Comment Who will win the 2026 election for California's 51st State Assembly district est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria