Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%-23.5ptEn tête parmi 11 options
Nobody (linked market resolves NO) 50%-23.5ptPrévisionnistes
42
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-23.5 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète8 févr. 25, 00:00 UTC2 janv. 28, 07:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will an AI be able to generate a high-quality PhD thesis to a single prompt in any formal scientific field by EOY 2027?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsIn 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie to a prompt, with human aid?
Manifold MarketsIn early 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality movie script to a prompt?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This market is based on: @/ScottAlexander/in-2028-will-an-ai-be-able-to-gener
- If the linked Scott Alexander market resolves NO, this market resolves to 'Nobody'.
- If the linked market resolves YES, this market resolves based on which AI was used to trigger the resolution of the linked market.
- I reserve the right to edit options in the interest of making this market as predictively useful as possible.
- For example, to avoid overlap, if 'OpenAI' and 'Sam Altman' were both options I would edit 'Sam Altman' to say 'The first AI dev organization founded by Sam Altman after he leaves OpenAI'.
- I will generally try to edit the most recently added option in such a scenario, and I will perform the edit as soon as the issue is brought to my attention.
