Prévision communautaire actuelle
Deepmind/Google/Alphabet 29%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
68
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 7 heures
Obsolète3 mars 24, 16:53 UTC31 déc. 29, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
A government will build the first human-level AGI, assuming humans build one at all
Manifold MarketsConditional on a government building the first human-level AGI, it will be the USA (rather than China, etc.)
Manifold MarketsBy at least 10 years before human-level AGI is built, debate about AGI risk will be as mainstream as global warming is in 2015
Manifold MarketsWill the first human level AGI be Neuromorphic/WBE rather than Prosaic?
Manifold MarketsBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiWhich company has best AI model end of 2026?
PolymarketRègles
This question seeks to identify who will first publicly reveal human-level AGI.
- Timeline: Voting closes at the end of 2029.
- The question may be resolved earlier if a clear winner emerges.
- If human-level AGI is not achieved by 2030, the question will resolve based on who has made the most progress towards the criteria.
- Definitions:
- Human-level AGI: Artificial Intelligence capable of doing almost all human cognitive tasks to a high level (equivalent or better than a median professional in the field).