Who will be the Democratic nominee, and will they win the 2028 presidential election?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection2a
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleSomeone else is the Democratic nominee and that person WINS the presidency 13.6%En tête parmi 22 options
Prévisionnistes
10
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 58 minutes
En retard26 août 26, 11:52 UTC7 nov. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Conditional on (x) being the 2028 democratic nominee, (x) wins the 2028 presidential election
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Manifold MarketsWill the Republican nominee or Democratic nominee for 2028 presidential election be a female?
Manifold MarketsWill the Democratic nominee of the 2028 presidential election be under the age of 50?
Manifold MarketsLA-04 Democratic nominee?
KalshiLA-05 Democratic nominee?
KalshiRègles
This market resolves to the option that correctly identifies the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee and whether they win the 2028 U.S. presidential election.
- Democratic Nominee: The individual who officially secures the Democratic Party's presidential nomination at the 2028 Democratic National Convention (DNC) or is formally certified by the Democratic National Committee to appear on the general election ballot in November 2028.
- Winning the Presidency: The candidate will be treated as having won the 2028 presidential election once there is a clear consensus among major reputable news organizations that they are the president-elect.
- For this purpose, “clear consensus” means the Associated Press has called the race for the candidate and at least two of Reuters, the New York Times, CNN, Fox News, ABC News, CBS News, or NBC News have done the same.
- Resolution Rules:
- Only one option will resolve YES; all other options will resolve NO.
