Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleJD Vance 74.9%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète9 mars 25, 04:35 UTC2 juin 28, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Democratic primaries?
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KalshiBalance of Power: 2026 Midterms
PolymarketWhich party will win the U.S. House?
KalshiRègles
For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%.
- In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:
- 2024: Donald Trump, the named outcome, the named outcome
- 2020: Donald Trump
- 2016: Donald Trump, the named outcome, Ben Carson, John Kasich, the named outcome, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul
- 2012: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann