Which party will win the house in 2026 midterms
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlectionÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 202622jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleDemocratic Party 88.7%
Prévisionnistes
2
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+38.7 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 2 heures
Obsolète7 oct. 26, 18:51 UTC3 nov. 26, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolution criteria
- This market will resolve based on which political party wins majority control of the United States House of Representatives in the midterm elections held on November 3, 2026.
- An option (e.g., "the named outcome" or "the named outcome") will resolve to YES if that party wins at least 218 voting seats out of the 435 up for election.
- All other options will resolve to NO.
- No Clear Majority / Tie-Breaker: If no single party wins 218 seats (for instance, due to independent or third-party representatives), the market will resolve to YES for the party that successfully organizes the House and elects its nominee as the Speaker of the House for the 120th Congress in January 2027.
- Source of Truth: The market will resolve using the official election results published by the Clerk of the United States House of Representatives, or consensus calls by major national election decision desks (e.g., Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ) once the outcome is mathematically settled.
Comparaison des sources de prévision
- Également disponible sur PredictIt — Which party will win the House in the 2026 election? · Democratic 90%
- Également disponible sur Polymarket — Which party will win the House in 2026? · Democratic Party 90%
- Également disponible sur Limitless — Which party will win the House in 2026? · Democratic Party 91%
- Également disponible sur Kalshi — Which party will win the U.S. House? · Democratic Party 89%
