Which party will win the 2026 U.S. House election in Washington's 5th District?
0.4 pts (24h)PolitiqueOne-OffÉlections de mi-mandat américaines 2026Politique américaineÉlection23jManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleRepublican Party — Michael Baumgartner 84.4%+0.4ptEn tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
5
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+1.8 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 15 heures
Obsolète6 oct. 26, 06:25 UTC4 nov. 26, 12:00 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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ForecastExWill Michael Baumgartner win the Washington 5th District general election for the US House of Representatives in 2026?
ForecastExRègles
This market resolves to the party of the winner of the 2026 election for U.S. Representative for Washington's 5th congressional district — the term beginning January 3, 2027.
- Which round counts: the November 3, 2026 general election (plurality winner).
- Primaries do not count.
- Party rule: the winner's party is the party on whose line or with whose party designation they appear on the official general-election ballot.
- A candidate nominated by Democratic Party or Republican Party who also appears on other parties' lines (fusion) counts as that party's candidate.
- Candidates who are independent, have no party preference, or belong to any other party resolve to "the named outcome", even if they say they would caucus with a major party.
