Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars? ?

Manifold Markets cote SpaceX à 78.6% au 25 octobre 2026.

Which organisation will be first to successfully land a human that walks on Mars?

Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibré

Prévision communautaire actuelle

SpaceX 78.6%

En tête parmi 4 options

Prévisionnistes

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Variation 7j

0.0 pts

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 15 heures

Obsolète

11 mai 24, 17:01 UTC1 janv. 00, 12:59 UTC

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité

Règles

If there is a joint effort between two organisations (eg spaceX and NASA) I'll resolve to the one that paid for the trip.

For example a spaceX rocket landing on the moon, paid for by the Artemis program, would resolve to NASA (if this market were about the moon.
If an organisation sells tickets, it's the organisation paying for the trip and not the people/organisation buying the tickets.
If they share the cost I'll resolve to the share of the cost the organisations pay.
(https://manifold.markets/embed/Daniel_MC/will-an-optimus-robot-walk-on-mars)