Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleJudge David J. Porter 96%En tête parmi 3 options
Prévisionnistes
3
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 5 heures
Obsolète8 sept. 25, 18:37 UTC8 sept. 27, 18:23 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will the Fourth Circuit Court of Appeals rule in Kalshi's favor?
Manifold MarketsWill the 11th Circuit rule non-intervened False Claims Act qui tam suits unconstitutional?
KalshiWill Kalshi sweep the Appeals court cases about pre-emption?
Manifold MarketsCircuit-level appeal of a dismissal of a microplastics case on the merits (preemption, causation, pleadings) byEOY2028?
Manifold MarketsWill a court rule Visa violated antitrust law on debit?
KalshiClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Resolution criteria
- For each judge option, resolve YES if that judge votes for an outcome that leaves Kalshi protected from New Jersey enforcement in the Third Circuit appeal KalshiEX LLC v.
- Flaherty, No. 25-1922 (i.e., votes to affirm the district court’s preliminary injunction or otherwise grant relief in Kalshi’s favor).
- A concurrence or dissent explicitly taking Kalshi’s side counts as YES.
- Otherwise NO.
- If the appeal is dismissed or mooted without a judge-by-judge merits vote, that option resolves N/A. Source of truth: the Third Circuit docket and the filed opinion.
Marchés ouverts
RegulationPOLYMARKETClarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- No+2.0pt86%
- Yes-2.0pt14%
- Volume total
- 12,5 M €
- Volume 24h
- 220,4 k €
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,+2.0pt89%
- December 15,86%
- November 30,+0.5pt85%
+7 résultats de plus
- Volume total
KALSHIWill the Clarity Act become law?
- Before Jan 1, 2028-11.0pt40%
- Before Oct 1, 2027-15.0pt40%
- Before Jul 1, 2027-15.0pt32%
+7 résultats de plus
KALSHIWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Before Apr 1, 2027+5.0pt97%
- Before Jan 1, 2027+5.0pt96%
- Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt94%
+9 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhat will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
- $1.25T–$1.5T20.4%
- $1.75T–$2.0T19.4%
- $1.5T–$1.75T18.4%
+5 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 105,1 k €
KALSHIHow many states will adopt data center moratoriums in 2026?
- At least 3+16.0pt87%
- At least 267%
- At least 4+20.0pt66%
+1 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Who will successfully take over Warner Brothers?
- Which companies will officially announce an IPO this year?
- When will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Discord IPO Closing Market Cap
- Will another state enact a data center moratorium in 2026?
- Will marijuana be rescheduled?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by September 30?
- SpaceX' Market Cap end of October 2026?
- Will Wyoming create a Digital Asset Authority?
- Space Exploration Technologies' Market Cap end of September 2026?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? ?
- Manifold Markets cote Judge David J. Porter à 96% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? sera-t-il résolu ?
- Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? doit être résolu le 8 septembre 2027.
- Comment Which of the Third Circuit Judges will rule in Kalshi's favor? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolution criteria