Alerte qualité des donnéesDonnées source dégradées
Données au 25 oct. 2026, 14:40 UTC · politique pm-quality-4
Prévision communautaire actuelle
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%En tête parmi 7 options
In-space second stage raptor relight in Q4 2024 or Q1 2025 100%Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 18 heures
Obsolète28 oct. 24, 14:20 UTC1 janv. 29, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Which publicly traded US companies will do a purely-LLM-performance-based layoff in 2026?
Manifold MarketsExit valuation of Spine AI (YC S23)?
Manifold MarketsOf the top 18 jobs in the US in the year 2022, which one will be first to lose at least 1/2 of its workers?
Manifold MarketsWho will ever rank Top 10 in LMSYS Chatbot Arena Text Leaderboard in 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of October?
PolymarketHow many more Millennium Prize Problems will AI solve in 2026?
PolymarketRègles
Based on https://arstechnica.com/space/2024/10/spacex-has-caught-a-massive-rocket-so-whats-next/
- [link preview]I substituted quarters for the vague "early", "mid", "late" phrasing and gave each prediction at least a six-month window.
- All options refer to the first time a given milestone happens after market creation.
- Too early = NO.
- Added clarifications:
- Starship second stage landing on land: Should be a soft landing/catch where it stays upright and doesn't immediately explode.
