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| # | Name | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) | Circulating Supply | Last 7 Days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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When will U.S. ground forces first enter Iranian territory? (April 2026)
17jManifold MarketsSans KYCAlertes
Suivez ce marche pour creer des alertes.
Contexte de prévision
Prévision communautaire actuelle
April 8 - 14 2.3%
Prévisionnistes
15
Type de question
multiple choice
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 3 heures
ObsolèteDernière mise à jour: 12 avr., 21:17
Se resout
30 avr. 2026, 23:59
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-
Début 8 avr. 2026, 03:52Fin 30 avr. 2026, 23:59
Tendances
Résultat24hProbabilité
Règles
This market will resolve to YES for the bucket corresponding to the Washington, D.C. (Eastern Time) date that conventional or special operations ground forces of the United States first physically enter the sovereign land territory of Iran. All other options will resolve to NO.
- If no such confirmation occurs by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Not in April 2026.
- Sovereign Land Territory: Includes the Iranian mainland and internationally recognized Iranian islands (e.g., Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Sirri Island), as well as physically boarding and occupying Iranian-flagged offshore oil platforms within Iranian territorial waters.
- Ground Forces: Implies intentional "boots on the ground" deployments for the purpose of combat, raiding, sabotage, or occupation. This includes both conventional infantry/armor units (e.g., Marines, Army Airborne) and special operations forces (e.g., Navy SEALs, Delta Force, Army Rangers).
- Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements from the United States (e.g., Department of Defense press releases, Presidential addresses), or strong, corroborated consensus reporting from top-tier, credible international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WSJ) confirming the specific date the physical incursion began.
- Exclusions (NOT a YES):
Sujets
PolitiqueGéopolitiqueCommodities
Marchés Associés
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U.S. forces seize another oil tanker by...?
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Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
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US military draft authorized in 2026?
1 k €Oui: 11%POLYMARKET
POLYMARKET