Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
2029 or later 83.7%+0.5ptEn tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
42
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+3.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 6 heures
Obsolète8 nov. 24, 14:56 UTC1 janv. 29, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
How will Trump leave office?
Manifold Markets2026 Midterms: Will Trump leave office OR will a family member be indicted OR will Dems win Senate before 1/20/29?
Manifold MarketsWill Trump leave office early?
PredictItWill Xi Jinping leave the office of General Secretary of the CCP by which date?
FutuurDonald Trump announces departure as President? (Excluding death)
KalshiWill Trump win a third term as president in 2028? (shenanigans allowed)
Manifold MarketsRègles
Year in which Trump is replaced as US President and successor is inaugurated
Marchés ouverts
Politics
POLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
- JD Vance-0.6pt24%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez13%
- Jon Ossoff12%
+49 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 605,6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 691,8 k €
POLYMARKETBrazil Presidential Election
- Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva-6.0pt53%
- Flávio Bolsonaro+5.5pt45%
- Renan Santos-0.3pt1%
+16 résultats de plus
POLYMARKETWhich party will gain most seats in Russian Parliamentary Election?
- United Russia (ER)+5.0pt73.3%
- New People (NL)-2.7pt22.8%
- Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR)-0.9pt3%
POLYMARKETRepublican Presidential Nominee 2028
- J.D. Vance50%
- Marco Rubio-0.2pt20%
- Tucker Carlson3%
+39 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 603,1 M €
KALSHI2028 Democratic presidential nominee
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez-1.0pt16.2%
- Jon Ossoff-2.0pt16.2%
- Gavin Newsom14.1%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 183,6 M €
KALSHINew Hampshire Democratic Senate nominee?
- Chris Pappas+1.3pt100%
- Karishma Manzur-1.8pt0%
- Jared Sullivan-0.2pt0%
+3 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- Next French Presidential Election
- US announces end of Iranian blockade by which date?
- Which party will win the U.S. House?
- 2028 Republican presidential nominee
- Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
- Prime Minister of Israel after the next election?
- NH-01 Democratic nominee?
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028
- Russia Parliamentary Election Winner
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms
- NJ-07 House winner?
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour When will Trump leave office as President? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2029 or later à 84% au 8 septembre 2026.
- Quand When will Trump leave office as President? sera-t-il résolu ?
- When will Trump leave office as President? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2029.
- Comment When will Trump leave office as President? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Year in which Trump is replaced as US President and successor is inaugurated