When will the world's Total Fertility Rate be reported to have fallen below replacement level?
Société et culture
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Before 2069 92.5%En tête parmi 45 options
Before 2069 92.5%Prévisionnistes
63
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 16 heures
Obsolète13 mai 24, 17:29 UTC31 mars 69, 12:30 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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PolymarketRègles
This is a cumulative probability market.
- For an answer to resolve YES, reports/publications/data from any sufficiently conventionally high-status source (e.g. the UN Population Division, the World Bank, the CIA World Factbook, the Population Reference Bureau) need to come out before the date of that answer claiming that the world's Total Fertility Rate is at or below 2.1 (replacement level can change depending on mortality rates, sex ratio, etc. but 2.1 is the figure for the purposes of this question).
- Not that publications after an answer's date that make this claim are not eligible to count towards this question, even if they concern time periods before the date in question.
- The actual claim itself that humanity has fallen below replacement level needs to be made before the year in the answer in question.
- I will use my discretion on what sources I will count, but expect it to be conservative.
- Feel free to ask about sources ahead of time.
