When will the world population shrink year-over-year for the first time?
Macro et économieManifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelleBefore 2100 85.9%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
27
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 54 minutes
En retard20 mars 24, 20:06 UTC2 févr. 00, 22:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
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Manifold MarketsRègles
The market will resolve positively when human population in a given year for the first time (after the creation of the question) is lower than in the previous year, according to https://ourworldindata.org/population-growth or an equivalent source.
- The "world population" is a number of biological humans living on Earth.
- This does not include AIs, ems and people living on other planets.
- If the first such year is say 2040, i.e. population in 2040 is lower than in 2039, then "the named outcome" will resolve as NO (because 2040 is not the named outcome), but 2050 and subsequent options will resolve as YES.
- If the population never shrinks, all the answers will resolve as NO (and possibly I will add more options further in the future).
- I do not bet on my own questions.
