Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuellebefore Mar 31, 2028 82.7%En tête parmi 13 options
Prévisionnistes
12
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 14 heures
Obsolète15 déc. 25, 19:28 UTC31 déc. 28, 23:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
Will Josh Shapiro be the Presidential or Vice Presidential candidate for the Democrats in 2028?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Gavin Newsom announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez announce her run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsWhen will Mark Kelly announce his run for presidency for the 2028 election?
Manifold MarketsJosh Shapiro margin of victory
KalshiPhiladelphia County, Pennsylvania: Josh Shapiro vote percent
KalshiRègles
Resolution criteria
- For each answer, resolve YES if Josh Shapiro makes an official public announcement that he is running for U.S. president in the 2028 election on or before that answer’s cutoff; resolve NO otherwise. “before [date]” is treated as on or before 11:59:59 pm Eastern Time on that date.
- e.g. if the announcement occurs on Dec 15, 2027, the "the named outcome" AND "the named outcome" options resolve YES.
- Acceptable evidence (use the earliest timestamp across sources):
- FEC Form 2 (Statement of Candidacy) filed for a 2028 presidential run.
- An explicit statement by Shapiro or an authorized spokesperson that he is running for president in 2028 (e.g., on his verified social accounts or official site).
