When will be the next year that a presidential candidate gets at least 500 electoral votes?
PolitiqueOne-OffPolitique américaineÉlection
Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle
Before 2040 20.8%En tête parmi 8 options
Before 2040 20.8%Prévisionnistes
4
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 heures
Obsolète30 janv. 24, 15:06 UTC1 janv. 01, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Règles
Resolves to the next year that a single POTUS candidate gets at least 500 votes in the Electoral College.
- Faithless electors could affect this (i.e., if the candidate wins 500 votes in the election, but then one of their electors votes for someone else, it doesn't count).
- If the years in which elections occur change so that it happens in between these ranges, I resolve to whichever year it is closest to.
