Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2027 71.3%En tête parmi 5 options
Prévisionnistes
33
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
0.0 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 46 minutes
En retard8 août 25, 19:26 UTC1 août 29, 21:34 UTC
Tendances
Règles
This market will resolve to the first year when a freely available large language model achieves a gold medal-level performance at the International Mathematical Olympiad.
- The model must be available before day 1 of the IMO.
- I must be able to use the model without paying.
- For each year, directly after each day of the exam, I will pick the strongest LLMs and give them the problems independently.
- Each LLM has one attempt at each problem.
- I will then grade the problems.
