Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle2029 24.2%-0.4ptEn tête parmi 10 options
Prévisionnistes
17
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
-0.3 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 9 minutes
17 nov. 23, 22:04 UTC1 janv. 34, 05:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What is the first year in which a rider other than Tadej Pogacar or Jonas Vingegaard wins the Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the Tour de France a record-breaking 6 times?
Manifold MarketsWill Tadej Pogacar win the 2027 Tour de France?
Manifold MarketsUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
PolymarketUS Open Men's Singles Winner
Kalshi2027 Pro Football Champion
KalshiRègles
Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.
- If he appears on the startlist but does not actually start the stage, that is probably a DNS.
- If he appears on the startlist, starts the first stage, and quits before it is over, that is probably NOT a DNS.
- If the Tour de France is not held in any season, I am going to N/A this question because that is simply not what I am interested in.
- I don't want anyone to need to calculate "The TDF stops existing" into their valuations.
- So just assume the TDF happens every year.
Marchés ouverts
SportsPOLYMARKETUS Open ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Alex Michelsen
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 3.5+34.5pt100%
- Michelsen Set 3 Winner+45.5pt100%
- Michelsen Total Sets: O/U 4.5+70.5pt100%
+25 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 6 M €
- Volume 24h
- 5,9 M €
POLYMARKETUEFA Champions League: 2027 Champion
- Barcelona17.9%
- Arsenal15.1%
- Bayern Munich13.2%
+33 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,5 M €
KALSHIHouston vs Philadelphia
- Houston+48.0pt91.1%
- Philadelphia-48.0pt8.9%
- Volume total
- 2,4 M €
- Volume 24h
- 2,3 M €
KALSHIUS Open Men's Singles Winner
- Carlos Alcaraz+1.0pt58%
- Alexander Zverev+4.0pt26%
- Ben Shelton+2.0pt9%
+45 résultats de plus
- Volume total
- 24,6 M €
KALSHIBrace vs Sorribes Tormo
- Cadence Brace52%
- Sara Sorribes Tormo48%
- Volume total
- 1,9 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,7 M €
KALSHIShelton vs Alcaraz
- Carlos Alcaraz-1.0pt77.2%
- Ben Shelton+1.0pt22.8%
- Volume total
- 1,8 M €
- Volume 24h
- 1,6 M €
Questions fréquentes
- Quelles sont les probabilités actuelles pour What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? ?
- Manifold Markets cote 2029 à 24% au 9 septembre 2026.
- Quand What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? sera-t-il résolu ?
- What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? doit être résolu le 1 janvier 2034.
- Comment What will be the first year Tadej Pogacar does NOT start the Tour de France? est-il réglé ?
- Manifold Markets règle ce marché comme suit : Resolves Yes to the first calendar year where Tadej Pogacar does not start the first stage (or prologue) of the Tour de France.