Manifold MarketsSans KYCDonnées de résolution vérifiéesAssez bien calibréPrévision communautaire actuelle≥90% 75.5%En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes
19
Type de question
multiple choice
Méthodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Type de source
Prévision
Variation 7j
+14.2 pts
Données du marché
Mis à jour il y a 8 heures
Obsolète16 janv. 26, 20:50 UTC1 janv. 27, 04:59 UTC
Tendances
Marchés Associés
Questions liées pour le contexte, et non une comparaison de contrats équivalents.
What will be the best OpenAI-Proof Q&A score by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWhat will be the best Remote Labor Index score by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold MarketsAnthropic IPO by which date?
PolymarketWhen will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
KalshiAnthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
PolymarketBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRègles
This market matches Software Optimization: GSOBench from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.
- See other manifold questions here
- [image]Resolution criteria
- Resolves to the highest Hack-Adjusted Opt@1 score on the GSO leaderboard as of December 31, 2026.
- A task counts as solved if a single attempt achieves ≥95% of the human speedup AND passes all correctness tests.
- No retries or cherry-picking the best of multiple runs is allowed.