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  1. Marchés de Prédiction
  2. IA
  3. What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?
Manifold Markets

What will be the best FrontierMath Tier 4 score by Dec 31, 2026?

IA6mo
Manifold MarketsManifold MarketsSans KYC
Prévision communautaire actuelle
Manifold Markets
<30% 0.5%
En tête parmi 8 options
Prévisionnistes

38

Type de question

multiple choice

Méthodologie

Play-money forecasting platform

Type de source

Prévision

Données du marché

Mis à jour il y a 1 minute

16 janv. 26, 20:491 janv. 27, 4:59

Tendances

Résultat24hProbabilité
Manifold Markets
<30%
0.5%

Résultat choisi

50-60%1%

Règles

This market matches Mathematics: FrontierMath Tier 4 from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.

Manifold Markets
  • See other manifold questions here
  • [image]Resolution criteria
  • Resolves to the highest reported accuracy on FrontierMath Tier 4 as of December 31, 2026.
  • If Epoch AI releases an updated version of FrontierMath T4 with comparable difficulty, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
  • Which AI systems count?

Marchés Associés

Which company has best AI model end of June?

Which company has best AI model end of June?

153,1 k €
Anthropic: 89%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?

93,8 k €
↑$1.0T: 100%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

Will an AI achieve >85% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2028?

36,7 k €
Oui: 93.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Best AI model on June 13?

Best AI model on June 13?

23,3 k €
claude-opus-4-6-thinking: 94%PolymarketPOLYMARKET
Manifold Markets

What’s the least impressive thing you’re very sure AI still won’t be able to do before August 2027? [read description]

21,6 k €
Kill everyone - Liron: 4%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS
Manifold Markets

Who will be TIME Magazine's 2026 Person of the Year?

13,9 k €
Artificial Intelligence Itself (Including 'ChatGPT', 'Gemini', etc): 6.3%Manifold MarketsMANIFOLD MARKETS

Actifs dans ces sujets

BitcoinBTC$63,503.63-0.21%EthereumETH$1,663.83-1.02%SolanaSOL$66.65-0.61%DogecoinDOGE$0.0865-0.11%BNBBNB$602.92-0.28%XRPXRP$1.13-1.27%

Actualités Associées

Anthropic launches Claude Fable 5 with new safeguardsCrypto NewsEU orders Meta to restore WhatsApp access for rival AI chatbotsCrypto NewsJPMorgan plans longer-running AI agents for corporate workflows Crypto NewsOpenAI Files for IPO, Targets Valuation Up to $850BBlockchain.NewsOpenAI confidentially files to go public in the USCointelegraphNvidia expands South Korean AI partnerships across chips, cloud, and robotics Crypto News

Règles

This market matches Mathematics: FrontierMath Tier 4 from the AI 2026 Forecasting Survey by AI Digest.

Manifold Markets
  • See other manifold questions here
  • [image]Resolution criteria
  • Resolves to the highest reported accuracy on FrontierMath Tier 4 as of December 31, 2026.
  • If Epoch AI releases an updated version of FrontierMath T4 with comparable difficulty, this question will be resolved based on the updated task suite.
  • Which AI systems count?